Netanyahu’s governing coalition is fracturing. Here’s what it means for Israel and Gaza

TEL AVIV Israel AP Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu s administration suffered a serious blow on Tuesday when an ultra-Orthodox party revealed it was bolting the coalition While this doesn t straightaway threaten Netanyahu s rule it could set in motion his ruling body s demise although that could still be months away It also could complicate efforts to halt the war in Gaza United Torah Judaism s two factions explained they were leaving the regime because of disagreements over a proposed law that would end broad exemptions for religious students from enlistment into the military Military amenity is compulsory for largest part Jewish Israelis and the issue of exemptions has long divided the country Those rifts have only widened since the start of the war in Gaza as demand for military manpower has grown and hundreds of soldiers have been killed The threat to the cabinet looks more serious than ever reported Shuki Friedman vice president of the Jewish People Program Institute a Jerusalem think tank Netanyahu is on trial for alleged corruption and critics say he wants to hang on to power so that he can use his office as a bully pulpit to rally supporters and lash out against prosecutors and judges That makes him all the more vulnerable to the whims of his coalition allies Here is a look at Netanyahu s political predicament and certain anticipated scenarios The ultra-Orthodox are key partners Netanyahu Israel s longest serving leader has long relied on the ultra-Orthodox parties to prop up his governments Without UTJ his coalition holds just out of parliament s seats That means Netanyahu will be more susceptible to pressure from other elements within his ruling body especially far-right parties who strongly oppose ending the war in Gaza The political shake up isn t likely to comprehensively derail ceasefire talks but it could complicate how flexible Netanyahu can be in his concessions to Hamas A second ultra-Orthodox party is also considering bolting the governing body over the draft issue That would give Netanyahu a minority in parliament and make governing almost impossible The ultra-Orthodox military exemptions have divided Israel A decades-old arrangement by Israel s first prime minister granted hundreds of ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from compulsory Israeli organization Over the years those exemptions ballooned into the thousands and created deep divisions in Israel The ultra-Orthodox say their men are serving the country by studying sacred Jewish texts and preserving centuries old tradition They fear that mandatory enlistment will dilute adherents connection to the faith But majority of Jewish Israelis see the exemption as unfair as well as the generous cabinet stipends granted to multiple ultra-Orthodox men who investigation instead of work throughout adulthood That bitterness has only worsened during nearly two years of war The politically powerful ultra-Orthodox parties have long had outsize influence in Israel s fragmented political system and used that status to extract major concessions for their constituents But a court last year ruled Netanyahu s establishment must enlist the ultra-Orthodox so long as there is no new law codifying the exemptions Netanyahu s coalition has been trying to find a path forward on a new law But his base is largely opposed to granting sweeping draft exemptions and a key lawmaker has stood in the way of giving the ultra-Orthodox a law they can get behind prompting their exit The political shake up comes during Gaza ceasefire talks The resignations don t take effect for hours so Netanyahu will likely spend the next two days seeking a compromise But that won t be easy because the Supreme Court has stated the old system of exemptions amounts to discrimination against the secular majority That does not mean the establishment will collapse Netanyahu s opponents cannot submit a motion to dissolve parliament until the end of the year because of procedural reasons And with parliament s summer recess beginning later this month the parties could use that time to find a compromise and return to the authorities Cabinet Minister Miki Zohar from Netanyahu s Likud party announced he was hopeful the religious party could be coaxed back to the coalition God willing everything will be fine he disclosed A Likud spokesman did not right now respond to a request for comment Once the departures become official Netanyahu will have a razor-thin majority The far-right parties within it could threaten to leave the coalition further weakening him if he gives in to too multiple of Hamas demands Hamas wants a permanent end to the war as part of any ceasefire deal Netanyahu s hard-line partners are open to a temporary truce but say the war cannot end until Hamas is destroyed If they or any other party leave the coalition Netanyahu will have a minority regime and that will make it almost impossible to govern and likely lead to its collapse But he could still find approaches to approve a ceasefire deal including with backing from the political opposition Israel may be on the path toward early elections Netanyahu could seek to shore up his coalition by appeasing the far-right and agreeing for now to just a partial -day ceasefire with Hamas promising his governing partners that he can still resume the war once it expires But Netanyahu is balancing those political constraints with pressure from the Trump administration which is pressing Israel to wrap up the war Gayil Talshir a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem revealed she expects Netanyahu to work during those days to shift the narrative away from the draft exemptions and the war in Gaza toward something that could potentially give him an electoral boost like an expansion of U S -led normalization deals between Israel and Arab or Muslim countries Once the -day ceasefire is up Netanyahu could bend to U S pressure to end the war and bring home the remaining hostages in Gaza a move bulk Israelis would assistance Elections are presently scheduled for October But if Netanyahu feels like he has improved his political standing he may want to call elections before then Source