Minnesota needs immigrants to propel population growth. How will federal policy affect that?

Minnesota s population has grown in three tactics naturally via more births than deaths people moving here from other states and international migration Demographers point out however that in as scarce as four years international migration will become the primary driver of the state s population enhancement And continued population rise will help address labor force shortages increase the number of consumers and entrepreneurs and broaden the state s tax base But these projections which demographers have been watching for years are taking place against a decidedly anti-immigration national backdrop The Trump administration has blocked asylum access at the perimeter stopped issuing international scholar visas tried to rescind temporary protected legal status for certain groups of immigrants and banned passage to the U S for citizens from a dozen countries Despite a great number of of these issues being mired in legal challenges taken together it sends a less-than-welcoming message to those who want to live work and examination in the U S The aging of the Baby Boomers has an impact on dampening advancement and at the same time we have lower birth rates over time Minnesota s state demographer Susan Brower narrated MinnPost Susan Brower We know that going forward international immigration is going to continue to be an crucial source of population progress and really become a more central component of increase in the future she declared The Trump administration s immigration policies are so new that it s complicated to anticipate how exactly they will show up in the state s population details But Brower walked me through the nature of Minnesota s population rise in the past and what she and other demographers are projecting in the future Those insights can help us understand what fewer immigrants coming to Minnesota might mean for the state Natural rise traditionally the main engine of Minnesota s population increase is slowing Since the s up until about Minnesota had been growing very rapidly and much of that was due to our own internal advancement Brower commented But that period of high natural increase appears close to peaking with the state looking down the other side of a demographic mountain function use strict window addEventListener message function a if void a figures datawrapper-height var e document querySelectorAll iframe for var t in a information datawrapper-height for var r i r e i i if r contentWindow a source var d a material datawrapper-height t px r style height d We re projecting that Minnesota will not grow as rapidly as it has in the past because the population is aging Older populations have fewer babies and they have higher mortality rates and so it s just much much harder for an older population to grow compared to a younger population she declared At specific point Minnesota will no longer be able to maintain its current population most of in recent weeks estimated at million in July of through natural advancement alone function use strict window addEventListener message function a if void a evidence datawrapper-height var e document querySelectorAll iframe for var t in a figures datawrapper-height for var r i r e i i if r contentWindow a source var d a input datawrapper-height t px r style height d Historically Minnesota saw more other Americans move to the state than leave it That s also changed In the s we had a net inflow from other states Brower mentioned What we ve seen since the s up until now is consistent small but regular net outflows of people mostly young people to other states she commented There are multiple theories as to why young Minnesotans leave the state but the general consensus is that this domestic out-migration has been more than offset by the international in-migration the state has seen That leaves immigration as a source of population advance How has that fared Since immigration has propelled Minnesota s population development and it is poised to do so into the foreseeable future According to the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce from to immigration made up of the state s net population enhancement Needing immigration to prop up populations in the face of slowing birth rates and aging residents is a nationwide phenomenon Brower noted but Midwestern states are hit sooner because they have slightly older populations and lower levels of immigration Compared to a great number of other Midwestern states Minnesota does OK in part because we have or have had a healthy flow of immigrants from other countries that not all Midwestern states have experienced Brower declared This has been good for the state s employers making the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce an advocacy group that promotes the interests of the business region one of the biggest boosters of immigration to the state Will that flow of immigrants continue for Minnesota With immigration such a lynchpin of Minnesota s development how will the state fare in this age of federal policies aimed at curbing immigration Fifteen years ago when she started this job I would have expected federal policies to eventually align with the demographic reality Brower reported I would have expected them to adjust to the slower population improvement We haven t seen that happen she explained Instead we re in a world of labor force shortages caused by dampened overall population upsurge Brower mentioned We re expecting to see that dampened development continue and that has implications for society budgets for planning and for economic rise potentially in the future function use strict window addEventListener message function a if void a facts datawrapper-height var e document querySelectorAll iframe for var t in a details datawrapper-height for var r i r e i i if r contentWindow a source var d a content datawrapper-height t px r style height d What about native-born Minnesotans of different races How do they factor in Not all native-born Minnesotans are white just as not all immigrants are people of color Similar to how immigrants are driving population expansion non-white racial groups are also driving increase among the Minnesota-born population This can be attributed in large part to the large proportion of young people in racial minorities compared to white Minnesotans Up to of young people under the age of five are people of color And when you get to the very oldest age groups it s in the single digits to depending on which age group you re looking at Brower stated So part of what you re going to see in terms of natural change is just a loss of the white population as there are more parents of color and fewer or the same number of white residents in their childbearing years she commented Wait why do we need to grow Minnesota s population Immigration is economically advantageous for businesses because chosen immigrants bring specialized skills selected bring a willingness to do complicated jobs and when the population grows the domain of consumers grows as does the pool of workers Related from Locality Voices What kind of immigration plan do we want for Minnesota s economic system Much of our residents sector and its decision-making processes similarly take future population development as a given We build citizens budgets on the assumption of upsurge and policies based on the fact that we will continue growing both at the local and the state levels Those assumptions would need to change if we re not going to have population upsurge at the same levels in the future Brower noted Other countries and states are struggling with declining or flat populations and are having difficulty adjusting their systems to accommodate a shrinking number of residents she announced It is about how things are funded and also how our market system depends on ever-expanding markets and labor force upsurge so far Policies failing to align with requirements While there are issues that need to play out over time in the messy arena of politics demographers like Brower see flashing warning lights in the labor sphere particularly in industries where worker shortages can mean life or death She highlighted the key role immigrants play in Minnesota s wellbeing care industry filling critical gaps in hospitals long-term care homes and in-home care services At least in specific areas I would have expected federal program to be more aligned with workforce necessities than it is by now But there has been such heightened concern around immigration without understanding the demographic need for immigration Brower declared Policies sometimes take a very long time to align or maybe don t align at all for a reason that isn t necessarily logical demographically Will Trump s immigration policies change class to meet labor demands Until in the past few days the president seemed to have masses advocacy on this issue Polls presented the majority negative views of immigration were in the final months of former President Biden s term But that appears to have changed since Trump took office promising the largest mass deportation scheme in history After climbing to in the percentage of Americans who say immigration should be reduced has dropped by nearly half to Gallup announced alongside its poll published July In fact the majority latest polling shows of Americans think immigration is a good thing for the country an increase from a year ago and a high point in the nearly -year trend While there s no promise that this will translate into a different sort of immigration procedures it does offer a glimmer of hope for those who analysis population progress and decline and who see immigration as a crucial part of Minnesota s demographic and economic future The post Minnesota demands immigrants to propel population advancement How will federal protocol affect that appeared first on MinnPost